Week 4

We're baaaaack.

We are riding UConn against Miami OH.

QB Kalieb Osborne has been solid through 3 games and gives BD Nation another dimension with his legs. UConn is running for around 194 yards/game at 5.0 yards per carry, while Miami has struggled badly on the ground at only around 52 yards/game and 2.1 yards per carry.

I'd be lying if I said I didn't have a few concerns going in, but hey, we heatseeker missile to the + sign for a reason, right? Now that we are through 3 weeks, BDN can reference partner TeamRankings.com with additional statistical insight. While it is not as much of a sample as we like, it will do for now.  The RedHawks throw the ball well (298 passing ypg, ranked 17th) especially with UConn allowing 324.5 passing ypg (130th). But not to worry, we still like the Huskies; Miami OH's pass defense has been even worse, allowing 394.5 passing ypg (138th out of 138 teams...yes, the worst in the country). Miami OH also allows around 75% completions, and over 9 yards per attempt. Our Huskies won't win this in a gunslinger match, but a horrid pass defense for our Huskies offense that prefers to run, has a dual threat QB; the leaky pass D will help us convert when needed. Miami OH’s defense has also struggled getting off the field, allowing over 50% on 3rd down. The turnover numbers favor UConn too: UConn is at +0.5 turnovers/game while Miami OH is at -1.0.

I also like the coaching angle. Jason Candle knows Miami OH well from his time at Toledo and has coached against them multiple times in the MAC.

Pick: UConn +130 (DK) 2.4u

We are riding Tulsa against Arkansas.

QB Dexter Williams II gets the nod with Baylor Hayes out, and while that is a concern, Williams gives BD Nation some mobility and has already shown he can take care of the ball (he started last game, albeit against a poo poo team). Tulsa won’t need him to play hero ball if they can lean into the matchup on the ground.

Tulsa is averaging 187.5 rushing ypg (37th) at 5.1 yards per carry (25th). Arkansas is allowing 197 rushing ypg (108th) and 5.2 yards per carry (113th). On the other side, Arkansas has been flat-out terrible running the football: 39 rushing ypg (138th out of 138) and 1.6 yards per carry (138th). Tulsa’s defense is holding teams to 91 rushing ypg (21st) and 2.7 yards per carry (14th). If we control the run game and thus the game, we have a live chance at a nice price of +235 (FD) and +220 (DK).

Arkansas’ defense has not been much better overall. The Razorbacks are allowing 452.5 yards/game (115th), 7.0 yards/play (124th), and opponents are converting 60% of 3rd downs (134th). Tulsa’s offense has struggled on 3rd down itself at 17.86% (128th), so that is definitely one of the concerns here. But if there was ever a defense to help correct that, this looks like the one.

The turnover numbers are another big one for us. Tulsa is at +2.0 turnovers/game (7th), with 2.5 takeaways/game (6th), while Arkansas sits at -0.5 turnovers/game (88th) and only 0.5 takeaways/game (110th). Tulsa has done a much better job protecting possessions and creating extra chances through three weeks.

Arkansas does throw the ball more effectively than they run it, and can be another weakness. The aim is to control the run game and win the turnover battle for more chances to give us a chance to #RuinTheRazorbacks.

Pick: Tulsa ML +235 (FD) 1.4u